INDIA’S ELECTIONS BRING FIRST BJP GOVERNMENT
by Dick Gupwell, European Institute for Asian Studies asbl

The people of India, the world’s largest parliamentary democracy with an electorate of over 600 million, have voted in their twelfth general election and, for the sixth time, have brought about a change of government peacefully through the ballot box. This is the first time, however, that the ‘Hindu nationalist’ Bharatiya Janata Party (Indian People’s Party or BJP) has dominated a government. Indian politics have undergone an enormous transition in the past twenty years. While India’s first five general elections were all won by the Indian National Congress, each election since 1977, with one exception, has produced a change of government.

The BJP was set up in 1951, as the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, by Dr S.P. Mookerjee, President of the Hindu Mahasabha. It has aimed to develop India as a modern democratic society but one based on ‘One Nation, One People and One Culture’. It has traditionally been critical of the secular nature of Indian politics, has found it difficult to accept the existence of a separate Muslim state of Pakistan and has called for a strong national defence to include the acquisition of nuclear weapons. Of greatest concern to India’s secular parties, however, has been the BJP’s close association with the Rashtriya Swayamseval Sangh (RSS), a para-military and overtly communal pro-Hindu movement. It was an RSS fanatic who assassinated Mahatma Gandhi in January 1948.

India’s new Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, represents the more liberal wing of the BJP and his Cabinet contains a number of non-BJP ministers who are certain to restrain any tendency of the new government to pursue the BJP’s more extreme policies.

India’s first general election was held in 1952 and was won handsomely by the Indian National Congress under Jawaharlal Nehru. This performance was repeated in the elections of 1957 and 1962. During this time, the Jana Sangh was one of a small number of relatively weak national opposition parties, the others including the Socialists, the Communists and the pro-business Swatantra Party. There were also a number of regional parties, such as the Sikh Akali Dal in the Punjab and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu.

Indian politics began to change following the death of Nehru, in 1964, and his successor, Lal Bahadur Shastri, two years later. The choice of Nehru’s daughter, Mrs Indira Gandhi (no relation to the Mahatma) to succeed Shastri provoked serious opposition in sections of the Congress, leading to a series of groups splitting away over the next few years. However, while Mrs Gandhi was nearly defeated in the 1967 elections, she scored a resounding victory in 1971. Mrs Gandhi’s subsequent lurch towards autocracy and, particularly, her Emergency rule after July 1975, caused the non-communist opposition parties to coalesce into one movement, the Janata (or People’s Party). The Janata victory, in March 1977, led to the first non-Congress government since independence. Janata won 295 seats to the Congress’ 154.

The Janata Government was led by the conservative Moraji Desai who had broken with the Congress in 1969 to form the Congress (Organisation) Party. The Government’s other main components were the Jana Sangh (led by Vajpayee and L.K. Advani), the Socialists (under George Fernandes) and the Lok Dal (under Charan Singh). The Lok Dal had been formed in 1974 between various Congress breakaway groups and the Swatantra Party.

The 1980 general election was won handsomely by Mrs Gandhi at the head of a new Congress (Indira) Party, which had been set up to outmanoeuvre her own Congress Party critics. The Congress (I) won 353 seats to the Janata’s 31, while Charan Singh’s Janata (Secular) Party gained 36 seats. Then, in April 1980, the Jana Sangh faction left Janata to re-establishment themselves as a separate party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, with Atal Bihari Vajpayee (who had been Foreign Minister under Desai) as Party President.

Following Mrs Gandhi’s assassination by her Sikh bodyguards, in October 1984, the Congress (I) leadership passed to her son, Rajiv, emphasising further the dynastic nature of the party. In a hurriedly held general election, in December, the Congress (I) gained an unprecedented victory in a wave of sympathy for the bereaved Rajiv. The Congress (I) won 415 seats to the Janata’s 10, with only 3 seats for the Lok Dal (formerly the Janata (S)) and 2 seats for the BJP.

This marked the nadir of the Jana Sangh/BJP’s fortunes. In May 1986, L.K. Advani replaced Vajpayee as Party President. Vajpayee’s openness and emphasis on ‘Gandhian socialism’ was quickly replaced by anew advocacy of communal BJP goals, such as a ban on cow slaughter, a uniform civil code (to deny special provisions for Muslims) and the abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution which provides a special status for the Muslim majority of Jammu and Kashmir.

In 1987, there was another political realignment. The Janata and the Lok Dal merged to form the Janata Dal (JD) and were soon joined by V.P. Singh, who had resigned from Rajiv Gandhi’s Cabinet over the Bofors scandal, and others. The Janata Dal was then able to form a ‘National Front’ together with a number of regional parties, including the newly formed Telugu Desam from Andhra Pradesh, in August 1988.

In the general election of May 1989, the Congress (I) remained the largest party, with 197 seats. However, thanks largely to a widespread seat arrangement between V.P. Singh and the BJP, covering 350 of the 543 constituencies, the JD gained 143 seats and the BJP 86. In addition, the two communist parties (Communist Party of India (CPI) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI (M)) won a combined total of 45 seats. This enabled V.P. Singh to form a minority government with outside support from both the BJP and the communists. Indian politics had now become a ‘three horse’ affair.

India’s second non-Congress government was even more short-lived than the first. There were three reasons for its fall. First, the decision of the government, in August 1990, to implement the recommendations of the Mandal Commission to reserve 27% of the posts in the central administration and public corporations to the ‘Other Backward Classes’ who made up 52% of the population, drew the hostility of the high caste leaders of the BJP. Secondly, the increasingly vehement campaign of L.K. Advani, in favour of building a temple to the Hindu god Ram on the site of the mosque of the Moghul Emperor Babur (the Babri Masjid) at Ayodhya, in Bihar, led the government to fear an outbreak of communal violence between Hindus and Muslims, which led to Advani’s arrest in October. These factors caused the BJP to withdraw its support from the government. Thirdly, the Janata Dal split when Chandra Shekhar, a senior party leader who had been deprived of an important government post, broke away to form a Janata Dal (Socialist) Party. V.P. Singh then lost a confidence vote in Parliament, in November, and Chandra Shekhar then led a minority government, with Congress (I) support, until fresh elections were held in May and June 1991.

Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated in Tamil Nadu during this election, which probably helped the Congress (I) to win a relative (but not an absolute) majority with 231 seats and a minority government was formed under P.V. Narasimha Rao. While the BJP advanced to 119 seats, the Janata Dal fell back to only 59 seats. The BJP’s campaign had been based on ‘no’ to Mandal and ‘yes’ to Mandir (the Temple). Strengthened electorally, Advani and his successor as BJP Party President, Murli Manohar Joshi, stepped up their campaign for the building of the temple to Ram at Ayodhya. This came to a climax at a massive rally at the site of the Babri Masjid on 6 December 1992. In the presence of Advani, Joshi and other BJP leaders (but not Vajpayee), hordes of Hindu militants (Kar sevaks) broke through the cordon of RSS stewards, climbed onto the centuries old mosque and tore it down. This dramatic incident provoked widespread communal violence during the following week in various parts of India in which around 1,200 people were killed. Advani, Joshi and others present were arrested and the BJP governments of five states were dismissed. Vajpayee, although not party to this deed, did not condemn it but claimed that ‘a symbol of shame’ had now been ‘erased’.

In June 1993, Advani was again elected as Party President but now the party’s emphasis began to be placed increasingly on social, economic and foreign policy, allowing the Temple of Ram to become a less burning issue.

Although in a minority, P.V. Narasimha Rao’s government was able to run its full course, albeit among increasing criticisms of corruption. Prior to the 1996 general election, the Janata Dal formed a United Front with a number of regional parties and made a common platform with the communists and their allies of the Left Front. Although, in the elections of April and May, the score of the JD fell further to only 46 seats, (with post-election additions), thanks to the growing number of regional parties. The BJP gained 162 seats and the Congress (I) 140. This was the first time that the BJP had overhauled the Congress (I) to become India’s largest single party. The BJP parliamentary leader, Vajpayee, was now invited to form a government but, after only a few days as Prime Minister, had to admit that he had failed to win the support of a majority. Instead, the JDF leader, Mr H.D. Deve Gowda, became Prime Minister with outside support from the Congress (I).

After Narsimha Rao resigned his party’s leadership, in October 1996, the veteran Sitaram Kesri became leader of the Congress (IK). He took a very vindictive stance against Deve Gowda and soon secured his replacement as Prime Minister by the Foreign Minister, I.K. Gujral. It was clear that the new government was in a most precarious position. Moreover, over the previous few years, the Janata Dal had suffered from successive defections. In Uttar Pradesh, the former JD Chief Minister, Mulayam Singh Yadav, had broken away to form his own Samajwadi Party, although he remained in the United Front. Later, George Fernandes split off to form the Samata Party. Prevented by his former JD colleagues from joining the United Front in the 1996 elections, he formed a seat arrangement with the BJP, which enabled his party to retain a number of seats, especially in Bihar. After the elections, there were further defections in Karnataka, Orissa and Bihar.

Thus, when the Congress (I) decided to ‘pull the plug’ on the Gujral government, in November 1997, the once powerful Janata Dal had been weakened beyond recognition. More of these splinter groups and regional parties now turned to the BJP which, thus entered the 1998 general election with many more allies than before. The BJP won a record 179 seats, the Congress (I) retained 141 seats, thanks partly to the last-minute campaigning support of Mrs Sonia Gandhi (Rajiv’s Italian-born widow), and the Janata Dal almost disappeared without trace. After the election, yet more small parties rallied to the BJP.

Thus, on 15 March, Atal Bihari Vajpayee was again invited to become India’s first BJP Prime Minister and this time he succeeded in obtaining a majority. In his 22-member Cabinet, he has 11 fellow BJP ministers, including L.K. Advani at Home Affairs and M.M. Joshi at Human Resources. Yet the composition of the Cabinet is also quite diverse. Yashwant Sinha at Finance although now in the BJP, had earlier been Chandra Shekhar’s Finance Minister. The Socialist George Fernandes is at Defence. Ramakrishna Hegde, a former Janata Chief Minister of Karnataka, is at Commerce, now leading the small Lok Shanti Party. Buta Singh the Minister of Communications and now an Independent, was Rajiv Gandhi’s Home Minister. Other Cabinet members include S.S. Barnala of the Akali Dal, Naveen Patnaik, son of the former JD Chief Minister of Orissa (Biju Patnaik) who now leads the Biju Janata Dal, and Thambi Durai and R. Muthiah of the AIADMK (the main rival to the DMK in Tamil Nadu) which was earlier allied to the Congress (I). There is also Suresh Prabhu of Shiv Sena, the Maratha nationalist party which is an old ally of the BJP.

The broad-based nature of the new government is reflected in the National Agenda for Government, which was presented by the BJP and its allies on 18 March. Comparing this document with the BJP’s own election manifesto, it can be noted that the references to building the Temple of Ram at Ayodhya, the abrogation of Article 370 and the ban on cow slaughter have all been omitted from the National Agenda. Instead, emphasis is given to issues more associated with the Janata Dal (or even the Samata Party), such as providing help to the self-employed, small scale and handicrafts sectors, providing drinking water and housing for all and totally eradicating illiteracy. The only specific BJP pledge which has remained has been the reference to induction nuclear weapons and this has been left to the old Socialist, George Fernandes, who is not known for his pro-nuclear views.

Finally, given the great political uncertainty of the past two years, it would appear that the Indian electorate has voted for a period of stability. With the present Cabinet, this can be achieved. The question is, will the rank and file of the BJP, let alone the RSS, be content with the government’s present Agenda. If not, or if the BJP ministers try to implement their old communal policies by stealth, they are sure to be deserted by their new-found allies among the regional parties and those on the centre-left and yet another non-Congress government will collapse. For the moment, however, India’s ‘third force’ has imploded, leaving the Left Front largely isolated, while the Congress (I) has handed over its leadership to Mrs Sonia Gandhi who did not even stand for election. This puts the new government in a strong position and should enable it to see out its full term.

©Dick Gupwell, European Institute for Asian Studies asbl

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